Ahead of 2024, it's doubtful whether Cong can regain its base in NE states

Months ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, doubts persist whether the Congress would be able to regain its political space in the northeastern region, once a Congress stronghold, even as the grand old party notched up wins in Karnataka and Himachal Pradesh.

Amid the political pundits' assertion that Rahul Gandhi's "Bharat Jodo Yatra", which covered 3,800 km in 14 states and helped the Congress to achieve electoral gains in various parts of the country in general and in Karnataka and Himachal Pradesh in particular, the fact remains that the "Yatra" did not pass through any of the eight northeastern states.

While most of the central leaders of the Congress including party president Mallikarjun Kharge, former president Sonia Gandhi, Rahul Gandhi, Priyanka Gandhi Vadra campaigned in Karnataka and Himachal Pradesh, except for Rahul Gandhi they did not visit Nagaland and Tripura during February's assembly polls.

Rahul Gandhi only addressed an election rally in Meghalaya.

The Congress' central leaders' indifferent approach towards the northeast and the party's weak state organisational bases and inactiveness led to the party's poor electoral performance in the northeastern states.

Though for over six decades the northeast had been a strong bastion of the Congress, over the years the party lost its organisational bases leading to the emergence of the BJP and several regional parties.

Its downfall in the politically important northeast region began after the BJP's emergence with the Narendra Modi-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) coming to power at the Centre in 2014 after defeating the Congress led United Progressive Alliance (UPA).

Of the 25 Lok Sabha seats in the eight northeastern states, currently 14 are with the BJP while the Congress has four. The other seats are with the local and regional parties.

Out of the 498 MLAs in these eight states including Sikkim, the Congress has only 48 legislators (9.63 per cent) in six states -- Assam (27 MLAs), Manipur (5), Meghalaya (5), Mizoram (4), Arunachal Pradesh (4) and Tripura (3).

The party has no representation in the Nagaland and Sikkim assemblies.

The Congress had drawn a blank in the 2018 assembly polls in Tripura and Nagaland.

Except for Assam, where the Congress won 29 seats in the 126-member Assembly in 2021 (two MLAs subsequently quit the party and joined the BJP), the party secured third, fourth and fifth positions in the remaining states in the Assembly polls held after the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.

In the recently held Assembly polls in Meghalaya, the Congress secured five seats against 21 in 2018. While it managed to win three seats in Tripura, the grand old party failed to open its account in Nagaland for the second time after 2018. The three states have 60 assembly seats each.

Amidst the Congress's diminishing presence, in the past nine years many prominent leaders left the party including Himanta Biswa Sarma, Sushmita Dev and Ripun Bora (Assam), Manik Saha and Ratan Lal Nath (Tripura), N. Biren Singh (Manipur), Pema Khandu (Arunachal Pradesh), Neiphiu Rio (Nagaland), and Mukul Sangma and Ampareen Lyngdoh (Meghalaya), dealing a severe blow to the Congress.

The chief ministers of five northeastern states -- Himanta Biswa Sarma (Assam), Manik Saha (Tripura), N. Biren Singh (Manipur), Pema Khandu (Arunachal Pradesh) and Neiphiu Rio (Nagaland) -- are all former Congress leaders.

For a better electoral performance and eying the 14 Lok Sabha seats in Assam, the Congress like its previous efforts has initiated the process to form a 'Mahagathbandhan' (grand alliance) with like-minded parties.

Recently in Guwahati, the Congress held a meeting of 11 opposition parties including the Left, and local organisations.and excluding Lok Sabha MP Badruddin Ajmal-led All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF), Aam Aadmi Party and Trinamool Congress.

Assam Congress president Bhupen Bora, who called the meeting, had said that they would check the division of votes in next year's Lok Sabha polls in Assam as the BJP always gets electoral mileage due to the division of votes among the non-BJP parties.

All India Congress Committee general secretary in-charge of Assam, Jitendra Singh, said that Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge and the AICC have decided that the party will not have any alliance with the AIUDF.

The Congress along with many other parties, including the AIUDF, had formed a "Mahagathbandhan' and fought the 2021 Assembly elections in Assam together.

But soon after the polls, the Congress snapped its ties with the AIUDF, a Muslim-based party which currently has 13 MLAs in the Assam assembly.

Writer and political commentator Satyabrata Chakraborti said that the regional parties emerged highlighting the local and regional issues. Due to a lack of dynamic and proactive leaders and the central leaders' inactivity, the Congress gradually lost ground to the BJP and the regional parties.

"The Congress could not succeed in effectively dealing with the insurgency, unemployment, connectivity, infrastructure development and solution of the diverse ethnic issues. The party failed to exploit even whatever good steps were taken by the Congress governments including setting up of tribal autonomous councils in several northeastern states," he told IANS.

"The fall of the Congress-led UPA government and the emergence of the BJP-led NDA government at the Centre pushed the Congress to a defensive position in the northeastern region," the analyst said.

Chakraborti said that there is no sign that the grand old party would regain its position in the region with a multiplicity of around 200 tribes and sub-tribes besides diverse religions.