Clean sweep in North, gains in South; BJP-led NDA to breach 400 mark in 2024 LS polls: Opinion Poll

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led NDA is headed for a historic mandate in the 2024 general elections and is all set to attain the ‘400 paar’ target, set by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, says a poll survey by a leading media house.

The Opinion Poll has predicted a landslide victory for the BJP-led NDA, a setback for the INDIA bloc and below-average performance for regional satraps including TMC, DMK, AIADMK, BJD and more.

According to the Opinion poll, the NDA is set to fetch 411 seats in the 543-member Lok Sabha and the BJP could alone bag a record 350 seats.

The News18 Opinion poll conducted survey of more than 1 lakh respondents in about 518 LS constituencies spread across 21 states.

The BJP is expected to make a clean sweep in the Hindi heartland including states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Madhya Pradesh and make significant gains in West Bengal and South India. BJP’s alliance partners including JD (U) and TDP are likely to put together another 61 seats in the NDA kitty.

The survey also sees BJP making big inroads in Down South and springing major surprises by winning 5 seats in Tamil Nadu and 2 in Kerala and increase it's tally in West Bengal to a whopping 25 seats, a tad higher as compared to its 2019 performance.

As per the Opinion poll, the BJP is likely to bag 77 seats in Uttar Pradesh, 28 in Madhya Pradesh, 38 in Bihar, 12 in Jharkhand and 25 in Karnataka and clinch victory in all 26 seats of PM Modi’s home state Gujarat.

Some other states, where BJP is not looked upon as a formidable force are also seen titling towards it. The party is likely to secure victory in 13 seats in Odisha, 25 in West Bengal, 8 in Telangana and 18 in Andhra Pradesh.

INDIA bloc, a rainbow alliance of Opposition parties, is unlikely to pose any threat to Modi juggernaut and the survey finds it finishing at yet another miserable number. It says that Congress may end up at just 49 Lok Sabha seats, its second-worst eve performance after the humiliating show in 2014 elections.

Forecasting a lacklustre performance by regional satraps, the Opinion poll sees parties like AIADMK, BSP, BRS, BJD, and YSRCP not bagging more than 27 seats.

The survey also found the BJP-led NDA garnering close to 50 per cent votes, which in turn reflects in the projected thumping numbers.

In Uttar Pradesh, the survey sees NDA gaining its biggest clout ever, with a likely vote share of 57 per cent while the SP-Congress combine is likely to settle at 26 per cent votes. Out of 80 seats, the BJP is projected to win 77 and the rest three seats could be claimed by the INDIA alliance (2 seats) and Mayawati’s BSP (1).

In Bihar, the BJP-JD(U) alliance is expected to repeat its 2019 performance and win 38 out of 40 seats, though a number less than previous Lok Sabha elections. Here also, the NDA alliance is expected to fetch at least 58 per cent vote share while the INDIA bloc will be settling at a mere 28 per cent.

In Tamil Nadu, the BJP is projected to open its account for the first time and claim victory in 5 seats. The DMK-Congress alliance will remain a major force, winning about 30 out of 39 seats, says the poll survey. DMK-Cong alliance had won 38 seats in 2019 elections and AIADMK got 1.

In Maharashtra, the survey forecasts clear victory for NDA as it is likely to win 41 of 48 seats. Opposition is likely to claim victory on the rest of 7 seats.

In West Bengal, the BJP is expected to register a big leap in numbers and it may go from 17 seats to 25 seats. TMC is likely to bag 17 seats while Congress is likely to draw a blank. In the 2019 polls, Mamata-led TMC won 22 while BJP settled at 18 seats.