India to surpass China to become world’s largest 2-wheeler market in 2024

India is projected to surpass China this year to become the world’s largest two-wheeler (2W) market, a report said on Friday. The robust economic growth, consumer preference for 2Ws for short-distance commutes, and increasing 2W demand in the shared mobility space will help India overtake China, according to Counterpoint Research.

The electric E2W market is growing at a rapid clip, with 2024 sales penetration expected to be 1.5 times that of four-wheeler passenger EVs.

The two-wheeler sales grew by less than 1 per cent YoY in 2023. Going forward, it is the electric two-wheeler (E2W) segment of the market that will see more growth, with over a quarter of 2Ws sold in 2024 expected to be battery-powered.

Senior analyst Soumen Mandal said that the 2W market is heading towards maturity, but the adoption of electrification is expected to rise significantly, particularly after 2025. “Especially, Southeast Asian countries and India will witness mainstream adoption of E2Ws with a faster transition to EVs in these markets,” he mentioned.

Among the top 10, three E2W brands are from India -- Ola Electric, TVS Motor and Ather Energy reflecting India’s emerging presence in the E2W market. Ola and Ather are also greenfield “EV-first” 2W companies challenging the incumbents such as TVS, Hero and Bajaj.

“In the premium 2W segment, we are seeing the entry of newer players such as Ultraviolet, Revolt Motors, Energica Motor, Damon and ARC Vehicle to compete with Harley Davidson, Enfield, Yamaha and others,” said the report.

The electric E2W share in global 2W sales will reach 44 per cent by 2030, while cumulative E2W sales will exceed 150 million units between 2024 and 2030, driving global scale for the emerging E2W value chain.

Research Vice President Neil Shah said that similar to the four-wheeler market, they are seeing the 2W market transforming to embrace connectivity, especially against the backdrop of increasing electrification.

“Electrification entails ubiquitous wide area network connectivity, like 4G now or 5G RedCap in the future, along with related software and services,” said Shah. The overall semiconductor consumption by 2Ws will also increase to 15 per cent by 2030.