Long-term outlook for Indian stock market remains robust amid geopolitical risks

Despite a sustained selling pressure from the foreign institutional investors (FIIs) amid geo-political tensions this week, the long-term outlook for the domestic market remains robust with a stability in growth and a pickup in capex, experts said on Saturday.

Apart from heavy FII selling, muted Q2 earnings expectations and elevated valuations also acted as a headwind for the market this week.

The market watchers said they expect the market to be range-bound in the short term with mixed bias, while investors should turn more sector- and stock-specific in such a time.

Focus will be on large caps and growth areas like staples, agriculture, FMCG, consumption, power, digital, and infra. Buy-on dips will be the strategy on a short- to medium-term basis.

According to Rajesh Bhosale, equity technical analyst, Angel One, the market remains in a consolidation phase, with little change in chart structure.

“While prices tested the lower end of the trading range and closed near it, a break below 24,900 could open doors for further weakness, potentially testing the 24,700 level. On the upside, resistance is seen around 25,100 followed by the 25,250 level; only a move beyond this range might spark some bullish momentum on the hourly charts,” he explained.

On Friday, the Indian stock market bucked the negative trend, as both the Sensex and Nifty indices jumped upwards.

The Sensex closed at 81,224.75 after gaining 218.14 points, or 0.27 per cent, at the end of trading. At the same time, the NSE Nifty closed at 24,854.05 after gaining 104.20 points or 0.42 per cent.

The Nifty Midcap 100 index closed in green at 58,649.15 after gaining 183.20 points or 0.31 per cent at the end of trading. The Nifty Smallcap 100 index closed at 19,077.80 after gaining 11.85 points or 0.06 per cent.

For next week, traders are advised to avoid aggressive bets and be selective.

“It’s also crucial to monitor global factors closely, as they could influence market direction ahead of the weekly expiry,” they added.

Geopolitical tensions and uncertainty ahead of the US presidential election paved the way for haven asset gold to climb a new record high.

Gold prices continued their strong upward momentum, with a sharp rise of Rs 500 in MCX, taking the price to Rs 77,600, supported by Comex gold surging above $2,710.

This robust strength is largely driven by the expectation of ongoing interest rate cuts in the US, with further reductions anticipated in the near future, the experts noted.

The rupee remained flat at 84.05 as the dollar index also held steady around $103.50.

“Despite the broader strength in the dollar, the rupee has managed to stay stable for the time being. Although crude weakness provides some support, the heavy fund outflows are expected to push the rupee further down towards the 84.15-84.25 range in the coming days,” said Jateen Trivedi from LKP Securities.