Maha polls: CM Shinde’s twin challenge in home turf - consolidating SS strength, ensuring MahaYuti victory

Amid MahaYuti’s appeal to voters to re-elect the grand alliance to increase the pace of development in Maharashtra, Chief Minister Eknath Shinde faces a major challenge to increase the presence of Shiv Sena and also consolidate MahaYuti’s position in his home district Thane and the adjoining tribal dominated Palghar district especially due to rebellion and differences among the MahaYuti partners. 

Although the Chief Minister along with Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis partially succeeded in pacifying the rebels, those still in the fray have made the fight more tough for the MahaYuti.

Thane district has 18 assembly constituencies while Palghar has 6. During the Lok Sabha elections, of the four seats from these two districts, Shiv Sena won Thane and Kalyan while BJP bagged Palghar seat.

Thane has been traditionally been a bastion of Shiv Sena but after the split, Shiv Sena leader and CM Eknath Shinde outsmarted Uddhav Thackeray led faction to tighten its grip. Over the years, BJP has also made inroads in Thane district, which is a part of the Mumbai Metropolitan Region.

Of the 18 seats, Shiv Sena is contesting on six seats while nine is being contested by BJP, with the latter reasserting its big brother role.

Shinde’s worries are far from over after his two trusted colleagues Vijay Nahata and Vijay Chougule defied the party line and entered the fray from Belapur and Airoli constituencies respectively. Although Shinde disowned Nahata signalling party cadres to work for MahaYuti, the latter remains in the fray as independent against BJP’s sitting legislator and nominee Manda Mhatre in Belapur constituency. Though, Shinde deputed party MP Naresh Mhaske for coordinating between BJP and NCP, Nahata is able to garner support from section of party cadres making the fight bitter. Incidentally, NCP SP has nominated former legislator Sandeep Naik against Mhatre and Nahata. Naik, who was the BJP’s Navi Mumbai district unit, deserted the party and joined NCP-SP as the party did not consider his nomination.

In the adjoining Airoli constituency, Shinde’s another close confidant Vijay Chougule is contesting as an independent against BJP nominee and former minister Ganesh Naik and Shiv Sena UBT nominee MK Madhavi. Naik had openly criticised Shinde in the past.

Similarly, Shinde’s close associate Mahesh Gaikwad crossed the party line and he is contesting as an independent from Kalyan East against the BJP nominee Sulabha Gaikwad who is the wife of party’s sitting legislator Ganpat Gaikwad. Incidentally, Gaikwad is currently in jail in connection with firing on Mahesh Gaikwad due to personal rivalry. Although, Shinde and his son Shrikant Shinde, who is MP from Kalyan, have told party cadres to work hard for Sulabha Gaikwad’s victory, Mahesh Gaikwad may turn out to be a spoilsport by eating into the MahaYuti’s votes. Shiv Sena UBT nominee Dhananjay Borade is leaving no stone unturned to encash the rift in the MahaYuti for his victory.

In Kalyan West, the widening rift between the MNS nominee Raju Patil and Shiv Sena MP Shrikant Shinde has made the fight more personal. Shiv Sena has fielded Rajesh More while Shiv Sena UBT has renominated Subhash Bhoir who had lost to Raju Patil in the 2019 elections. Raju Patil was expecting that Shiv Sena will not contest the election but support him considering his party chief Raj Thackeray had supported Shrikant Shinde during the Lok Sabha elections. However, it did not happen as Raju Patil is making all efforts for the defeat of Shiv Sena nominee. This has forced Shinde faction to pull out all its resources including the rank and file to gain victory there.

In Mira Bhayander too, an independent Geeta Jain, who made every effort to get Shiv Sena ticket, is contesting again as independent after the BJP bagged the seat during the seat sharing arrangement. BJP has fielded Narendra Mehta who had lost to Jain in the 2019 elections. Incidentally, Mehta is a close confidant of Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis. Congress has nominated former legislator Muzaffar Hussain who expects to win the seat cashing in on the division of votes between Mehta and Jain. For Shinde, it is a catch 22 situation as supporting Jain may hamper the poll prospects of BJP and in turn of MahaYuti benefitting the Congress.

In Palghar constituency, Shinde roped in former MP Rajendra Gavit, who re-joined BJP ahead of general elections. However, Shiv Sena’s sitting legislator Shrinivas Vanga, who was not happy with the party’s decision and went missing for a few hours, had increased trouble for Shinde. However, after CM's assurance of his nomination to the state council, Vanga decided to toe the party line.

During the 2019 assembly elections, Shiv Sena won six seats in Thane and Palghar districts while BJP turned out to be a big brother by bagging 8 seats. In the same elections, NCP won 3, Bahujan Vikas Aghadi 3, MNS 1, CPM 1, Samajwadi Party one and independent one.

After the split, all six legislators joined Shinde and in the case of NCP after its split, two of the three MLAs joined Sharad Pawar and one went with Ajit Pawar.