Market rally backed by positive domestic data and global cues

Sentiments of investors are reinforced by positive domestic data and optimistic global cues, says Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services

Global market was supported by resilient economic data, avoiding the possibility of a recession. India's stock market trend was broad-based, owing to the outperformance from energy, financial, metal, and FMCG sectors, he said.

Economic activities are gaining strength with PMI level enlarging to 57.8, indicating sustained demand for products, fostering a sense of confidence in the manufacturing prospects.

Domestic equities surged higher, continuing last week's positive sentiment amid healthy 12 per cent growth in GST collection at Rs1.61 lakh crore for the month of June. Nifty continued its upward momentum driven by buying seen in index heavyweights. The index finally ended the session with gains of 133 points (+0.7 per cent) at 19,323 levels, says Siddhartha Khemka, Head - Retail Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

Sectorally it was a mixed bag with a rally seen in PSU bank – up 3 per cent and Oil & Gas up 2 per cent. Metals stocks were in the limelight on the back of marginally better-than-expected China manufacturing PMI data. Markets would react to other macro data like Manufacturing PMI data from the US, India's Manufacturing & Service PMI data, and FOMC meeting minutes, which would be released this week.

The overall structure of the market remains positive with Nifty attaining new highs at a steady pace. We expect PSU Banks to remain in focus on the expectation of healthy Q1FY24 numbers. With the monsoon deficiency reducing to 10%, agri-related stocks are likely to be in focus, he added.

Risk in the stock market is high due to rich valuations and some presently unknown negative developments can trigger a sharp correction, analysts have cautioned.

V. K. Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services said the ongoing rally in the market has made valuations very rich. Nifty is trading at above 20 times estimated FY 24 earnings. This is higher than the historical average.

"Momentum can take the market higher; but at high valuations risk is high. Some presently unknown negative developments can trigger a sharp correction. So, even while remaining invested in the market, investors have to be cautious," he said.

The BSE Sensex scaled 65,000 on Monday. Indian markets have been scaling new highs led by huge FII buying.