MVA faces existential crisis, Mahayuti betting big on consolidation

The Mahayuti alliance comprising BJP, Shiv Sena and NCP hit the jackpot while the Maha Vikas Aghadi consisting of Congress, Shiv Sena UBT and NCP-SP faced a shocking drubbing in the Assembly elections. Mahayuti did not just comfortably weather the anti-incumbency but also consolidated its position by winning a record 236 seats due to a show of unity, military-like precision planning, especially by BJP with strong support from RSS and its affiliates, smooth implementation of a slew of welfare and development schemes, including Ladki Bahin Yojana and the strategic use of 'Batenge To Katenge' and 'Ek Hai To Safe Hai' plank to woo the voters.

On the other hand, Maha Vikas Aghadi, after it outpaced the MahaYuti in the Lok Sabha elections by winning 31 seats, adopted its poll strategy assuming that winning a majority in the Assembly election is merely a formality. MVA appeared disunited, overconfident, and arrogant, lacked a concrete agenda to encash anti-incumbency and anger over core issues and downplayed the success of Ladki Bahin Yojana.

Although MVA came with the MahaLaxmi Scheme assuring a monthly aid of Rs 3,000 to women and free rides in the state transport buses apart from a monthly allowance of Rs 4,000 to educated unemployed, it was too late as the beneficiaries were reluctant to wait for the MVA government to come to power as they were happy about the financial benefits already received from the Mahayuti government. It was clearly a vote for continuity vs uncertainty in approach. The Mahayuti government had already deposited Rs 7,500 (Rs 1,500 per month) for July to November to each of over 2.34 crore eligible women beneficiaries and also spent money on the training of youths.

Moreover, MVA was under the impression that the change in constitution and scrapping of the reservation narrative that worked in its favour to challenge BJP’s 400-plus seats slogan in the general elections, will create magic once again in the state Assembly. However, it was clean bowled as the Mahayuti, especially Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah succeeded in painting the Congress and INDIA bloc in general as anti-Constitution and anti-reservation. The PM in his 10 rallies consciously avoided targetting Sharad Pawar and Uddhav Thackeray but accused the Congress party of hatching a conspiracy to divide the society, especially SCs, STs, OBCs and tribals to gain power. It strongly resonated with the voters as Congress miserably failed to counter Mahayuti’s charges effectively, thereby, suffering badly.

BJP in particular at the advice of RSS brought in 'Batenge to Katenge' and 'Ek Hai to Safe Hai' slogans midway through the poll campaign in a bid to consolidate Hindu votes and also Hindu Dalits as the party was able to tap them on the issue of sub-classification of reserved category groups for the purpose of reservations as per the recent judgement by the Supreme Court.

Furthermore, the BJP was able to increase its presence among OBCs as the party held more than 300 meetings with sub-castes within the OBCs after its dismal performance in the Lok Sabha elections. This was to make up for the loss, if any, from the Maratha votes. BJP took all the possible steps to reach out to OBCs by the establishment of various state undertakings and ensuring additional financial assistance. This was done to checkmate the pro-Maratha activist Manoj Jarange-Patil, who had asked his followers to oppose BJP and Devendra Fadnavis in particular during voting. The Jarange factor, which was visible and became crucial in MVA’s victory, failed to repeat as BJP’s pro-OBC plank worked wonders for the Mahayuti.

Ironically, MVA failed to tweak its poll strategy to checkmate Mahayuti and BJP after realising that change in the Constitution, scrapping of reservations or Jarange factor are not going to help it gain majority.

The BJP succeeded in projecting Jarange-Patil as having tacit support from Sharad Pawar and thereby accused the latter of dividing Maratha and OBC communities for political gains. Even though Sharad Pawar and MVA denied having any connection with Jarange-Patil, the voters thought otherwise. Jarange-Patil’s move to not field candidates but play up the MDM (Maratha-Dalit-Muslim) card in Marathwada and the rest of Maharashtra completely failed though MVA was quite bullish to get votes on this plank. The OBCs overwhelmingly supported BJP and Mahayuti in general adversely hampering the MVA’s poll prospects.

Moreover, MahaYuti was able to calm most of the rebels by properly fine-tuning the seat-sharing arrangement. BJP, which time and again projected itself as the big brother, not only got a lion’s share but was able to send some of its aspirants to Shiv Sena and NCP to contest as their nominees. BJP’s strategy worked as the party after fielding 148 nominees won a record 132 seats and also got its aspirants exported to allies elected. BJP and RSS worked in tandem and in close coordination to reach out to nearly one lakh booths with a resolve to increase at least 10 per cent voting on each booth. RSS, whose presence was not visible during the Lok Sabha elections, swung into action immediately after the Lok Sabha elections and used all its might and strength for the landslide victory of the Mahayuti and the BJP’s strong performance. BJP allies Shiv Sena and NCP also helped to improve their tallies.

On the other hand, MVA took a longer time to arrive at a seat-sharing agreement thanks to personal egos, monstrous ambitions, severe differences over seats and loss of killing instinct. Congress stretched further to get maximum seats and while doing that failed to zero in on winning seats due to the wrong selection of candidates. It also failed to pacify rebels, independents, and avoid fights among each other in various constituencies that led to MVA’s drubbing.

Despite humiliating defeat in Haryana, party heavyweights, including Rahul Gandhi, failed to devote more time to campaigning as they left it to the state leaders who failed to hide their factionalism. Congress underestimated BJP’s winning formula of giving proper representation to all sections which led to the defeat of its stalwarts like former Chief Minister Prithviraj Chavan, and former legislature party group leader Balasaheb Thorat. Despite the defeat, Congress is yet to put its house in order as instead of self-introspection it has launched an anti-EVM campaign.

Similarly, Uddhav Thackeray, who was able to encash sympathy during general elections after the split in Shiv Sena following Eknath Shinde’s rebellion, failed to get it during the Assembly election. He was also not able to cash in on his father and Shiv Sena founder late Balasaheb Thackeray’s legacy despite his targeting Eknath Shinde and BJP for seeking votes on his father’s name. Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena by winning 10 seats in Mumbai but in the rest of Maharashtra including its erstwhile bastion Konkan region, it faces a huge challenge to stay relevant.

Uddhav Thackeray will have to rejuvenate the party by focusing on further strengthening the Shakha-level network and offering new programmes. He would also have to increase his connect with the Sainiks in the days to come. Moreover, he faces an acid test to win the BrihanMumbai Municipal Corporation, which Shiv Sena (united) and BJP, ruled for over 25 years. Assembly election has proved that the Marathi Manoos card is not enough for the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena to win handsome seats as the party will have to revive the Hindutva card explaining how it is different from BJP’s Hindutva plank and tweak his strategy focusing on Maharashtra pride.

Eknath Shinde by winning 57 seats has declared that election results have shown the party led by him is a real Shiv Sena. Uddhav Thackeray will have to strive hard to regain the past glory by re-establishing his hold on the party.

As far as Sharad Pawar is concerned, he was the pacifier and coordinator to keep the MVA together during the general elections and also in the Assembly election. He addressed over 70 rallies and made allies to take on Mahayuti by focusing on core issues such as burgeoning unemployment, price rise, farmers' suicides and mismatch between the cost of production and realisation by farmers and flight of capital and investments to Gujarat and other states. However, Sharad Pawar, who was projected as the Chanakya of state politics, could not stop Mahayuti from its stellar performance. At the personal level, his estranged nephew Ajit Pawar, who ditched him and joined Mahayuti in July 2023, outsmarted him by winning 41 seats after its poor show in the general elections. Ajit Pawar has declared that the party headed by him is a real NCP. Sharad Pawar is not deterred by Ajit Pawar’s claims and the party’s defeat, he has already announced to rebuild the party to keep his cadres charged up.

In a nutshell, MVA faces an existential crisis as the blame game has begun between Shiv Sena UBT and Congress for electoral loss. A section of Shiv Sena UBT has made a strong case for going solo in the upcoming local and civic body elections though Congress and NCP(SP) have downplayed it. MVA allies face another challenge of keeping its cadres active and charged up ahead of civic and local body elections and also up to the next Assembly election. Against this backdrop, MahaYuti is on a strong wicket and it is betting big on its consolidation in Maharashtra. But for BJP it is an ideal situation to silently pursue its goal set by none other than Home Minister Amit Shah of "Shat Pratishat" BJP after the 2029 elections.