Pak Army assumes security in Islamabad amid rising tensions on streets, upcoming SCO Summit

Amid the fast-changing security situation on the ground in Islamabad with violent protests, clashes, arrests, cellular services and internet blockades; the government of Pakistan has decided to hand over the security of the capital to the Pakistan Army units officially.

Pakistan's capital Islamabad and its twin city Rawalpindi, along with the connecting route between Punjab province, Federal Capital Islamabad and the Khyber Pukhtunkhwa (KP) province, have become battlefields between supporters of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and the security forces throughout Friday and is expected to continue through the weekend as well.

With the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) summit scheduled to be held in Islamabad on October 15-16 coupled with the fast aggravating security situation on the ground with fierce clashes being reported amid PTI's call for protest at D-Chowk in Islamabad on October 4, the Federal Ministry of Interior has ordered handing over the security of the capital to the Pakistan Army.

The orders have been issued under Article 245 of the Constitution, which states "The Armed Forces shall, under the directions of the Federal Government, defend Pakistan against external aggression or threat of war, and, subject to law, act in aid to civil power when called upon to do so".

After directives from the ministry, army units have taken over security duties in Islamabad -- a move by the government to maintain law and order amid escalating PTI protests in the capital.

Official sources confirmed that the capital has been handed over to the armed forces from October 4 till October 17. The role of the armed forces includes patrolling at key locations to safeguard citizens and public property. This would also now include ensuring security protocols during the SCO summit, where dignitaries from member states will be landing in Pakistan.

Pertinent to note that External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar will be leading India's delegation and travelling to Islamabad for the summit also, making the event even more important, critical and crucial.

But on the ground, the security situation amid PTI-led protests resulting in violent clashes with the police authorities has made the political situation extremely sensitive for the government and has spread confusion about probable outcomes, which may be witnessed in the coming hours in the country.

"I am very worried about how the military establishment and the government have decided to handle this situation. They have called in the army to take control of the capital for 17 long days. They have applied Article 245, which means that they are referring to a political party PTI as either an external force which threatens war against the state. This is dangerous…," said senior analyst Najam Sethi.

"Keeping in view the current situation... where you have KP CM Ali Amin Gandapur with his barrage of people, armed with weapons and threatening to breach through the blockades to reach Islamabad... he is confronted with the army now. And god forbid, if a gunshot is fired in these days, by any of his angry protestors who have been difficult to control as we have seen in the recent past, the situation may go completely out of hand and end up in a disaster," added Sethi.

It would not be wrong to maintain that deployment of armed forces in the capital basically put the military establishment and former premier and currently incarcerated Imran Khan's PTI directly standing against each other. Any wrong move now, from the military establishment or PTI, may just be the final showdown that would push the country into anarchy and chaos.

While the suspicions and stakes remain high with all eyes stuck on the ticking clock, the next 24 to 48 hours have become highly critical.

However, for others, especially with a close watch on the developing situation -- the matter will not be allowed to escalate, while the prime demand of PTI, seeking engagement between imprisoned Imran Khan and the military establishment, may also not be entertained.

"The military establishment has maintained what it had been stating in the past. There can be no talks with Imran Khan -- not after what he and his party did on 9th May 2023. It will remain the same. Even this current tactic to create pressure and spread riots to force the military establishment to reconsider engagement with Imran Khan is not going to be entertained," said a reliable source on the condition of anonymity.

"Ali Amin Gandapur and his people violently protesting at the edge of KP, are not left with too many options and are seeking help from the military establishment to retreat. He has the army standing in front of him, and the armed forces have also been called in from his province KP, who have maintained their positions close to the Burhan interchange. So Gandaur is trapped in his own misadventure," he added.

The source said that the doors of the military establishment will remain shut for Imran Khan as they have been in the past. And his loudest voice Gandapur will have a decision to make for himself and his provincial government.

"KP CM Gandapur is leading a group of people, who are armed, who are ready to kill or be killed, who have said that they would use their weapons to fight and remove the blockades to enter into the capital, which is now controlled by the Pakistan armed forces. It's a recipe for his own crash. Any wrong move and he will have terrorism cases against him, a change of command in his province with a governor rule imposed and an end to his political party PTI, which is left with Gandapur only as their voice. Imran Khan also supports Gandapur, so as the ship falls, so will the man behind the bars as his pressure tactics will fail yet again," the source said.

While the claims made by the source are based on expected outcomes, the ground situation in Pakistan remains extremely tense and is expected to retain is sensitivity for at least the next 48 hours.